Bob,
Thank you for your comments. Let me say, though, that the items you report are not data errors. Instead, you are objecting to the judgments that Take Stock applies to the available data in projecting toward the future.
Take Stock applies very conservative judgment to the data. It appears to me that the software is using a very recent growth rate to do this. Hence, the lower growth rates are used.
For the forecast EPS, Take Stock computes the future EPS at the forecast growth rate (
1.1%) and also computes the future EPS using the "Business Model" (also known as the Preferred Procedure). In this case, it gets $2.80. Take Stock uses the lower number because that is deemed "conservative."
You are free to complain about the judgments and answers that Take Stock provides, but recall that it is purposefully designed to give a very conservative answer. The intent is to selected the very "best" companies.
Now, I looked at AFL briefly using Investors Toolkit. If you look carefully at the data, you will see that the last year or two data show that Aflac's growth rates are quite down. If you click the graph and then do Alt-G, you'll see that the growth of sales and earnings growth rates are declining. The sales growth rate declined for the last 3 years and EPS growth rate declined for the last two years. You also see this quite clearly if you look at the PERT graphics.
Again, it's the judgment, not the data! And you're free to argue with the judgments!
On 12 Nov 2007 06:09:35 -0500,
infirmary@stockcentral.com
> wrote:
From the The Infirmary forum at StockCentral.com, Bob Weber writes:
Take stock errors for AFLAC:
1. Data download sheet shows sales for last 8 out of 10 years > 8% except last 2 years yet historical growthStat% shows 1.8% and projected of 1.7%??
2. In reward, forecast high EPS shown as 2.80 yet EPS for 2006 was 2.96? Projected 3.12 or 1.1% when company usually in double digits for EPS -13 to 16% range??
Bob Weber
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Posted by: Bob Weber
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Joe
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