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arminfields  
#1 Posted : Sunday, January 7, 2007 9:43:06 AM(UTC)
arminfields

Rank: Advanced Member

Posts: 271

On the front page of the TakeStock TSSW form (on-line version), in the box headed "Growth Statistics", forecast growth rates are shown for Sales and EPS for each stock ticker entered. I have a few questions that I could not find answers to in TakeStock's Help:

(1) What period of time are those forecasts for (5 yrs, 1 yr)?

(2) What is the source for those growth rates?

(3) How are those growth rates determined?

(4) Can those growth rates be seemlessly incorporated into your Hemscott SSG data files which, as you know, contain no forecast growth rates?

Thanks for anyone's help.

Armin Fields

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sally.an  
#2 Posted : Monday, January 8, 2007 5:43:15 AM(UTC)
sally.an

Rank: Member

Posts: 23

Armin,

Here's answer to your questions:

1. forecast growth rates are for 5 years.
2, 3: growth rate is calculated from past 10 years data ( from hemscott) on the most conservative base. (if you need more information on this I can explain further for you, but this require some level of quant understanding so I just omit it here).
4. we will look into that.If you could further explain how you will read and use the data it will be very helpful for us to investigate.

thanks.

arminfields  
#3 Posted : Monday, January 8, 2007 8:49:21 AM(UTC)
arminfields

Rank: Advanced Member

Posts: 271

Hello Sally An:

Thanks for the prompt reply.

>

As you probably know, there is no EPS growth estimate that's part of the Hemscott SSG data file unlike the SSG data file that comes from Better Investing/NAIC. Their data comes from S&P Compustat and does contain an estimated EPS growth rate.

I plan to use the Take Stock EPS estimate as a conservative projection and compare it to what I am planning to use for my SSG.  I will make the final decision, not Take Stock (or S&P).

Armin

arminfields  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, April 24, 2007 3:24:54 PM(UTC)
arminfields

Rank: Advanced Member

Posts: 271

On 2-21, Take Stock showed a 20.0% forecast EPS growth rate for EXBD, but two months later, on 4-17, it showed a much reduced EPS forecast of 6.0%. As best as I can determine, no historical EPS was revised and all that happened was the addition of data for the fourth quarter 2006 and, as a result, annual data for 2006.
 
In the past three years, EPS growth has slowed substantially. EPS grew 58.1% in 2004, fell to 24.5% in 2005, and to 6.0% last year. In the Dec quarter, EPS grew 9.6%.
I don’t understand how Take Stock can reduce its EPS forecast for the next five years from 20.0% to 6.0% with the addition of the Dec quarter and annual data for 2006. After all, the slowing EPS growth is no sudden surprise. And, when it fell from 58.1% to 24.5% in 2005, Take Stock still forecast 20% EPS growth.
 
Could Sally An, or someone else who knows, explain the formula that Take Stock uses to arrive at a forecast EPS rate….hopefully, in easy-to-understand terms, with minimal quant lingo and maximum explanations? 
We shouldn't have to be quant people [I'm not] to understand the explanation [this is not rocket science].  An example or two would help, say the 20.0% and 6.0% for EXBD.
 
Armin Fields
 
Sally An wrote growth rate is calculated from past 10 years data ( from hemscott) on the most conservative base. (if you need more information on this I can explain further for you, but this require some level of quant understanding so I just omit it here).>>
gerlach  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, April 25, 2007 11:28:41 AM(UTC)
gerlach

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Posted By armin fields on 04/24/2007 7:24 PM
Could Sally An, or someone else who knows, explain the formula that Take Stock uses to arrive at a forecast EPS rate….hopefully, in easy-to-understand terms, with minimal quant lingo and maximum explanations?


The short answer is that Take Stock looks for the lowest/most conservative growth rate from the last year/quarter and uses that for the forecast growth rate. This is the same behavior as in the desktop version of Take Stock.

Doug

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