The Hulbert's Bees Knees Issue
15 September 2014
IAS Singled Out for Long-Term Performance
Consistency Takes the Sting Out of Downturns, Hulbert Says
The Hulbert Financial Digest just released a list of the most consistent investment newsletters of the past decade, and once again Investor Advisory Service is among those honored. In its cover story describing the Investment Newsletter Honor Roll, “The Virtues of Consistency,” HFD lists the top performers regarding consistentcy, and IAS is riding high.
In his comments, Mark Hulbert explains why building consistency is important to long-term investing success. Using the Wilshire 5000 as the benchmark for beating the market in any given calendar year, Hulbert ranked newsletters on their individual performance based on their record over the last 10 calendar years (2004 to 2013). In analyzing IAS, Hulbert includes 15-year results for the newsletter, which are considerable. According to Hulbert, the Investor Advisory Service “handily beats the Wilshire 5000 on a risk-adjusted basis,” with annual total return of 11.1% compared with the annual return of 8.3% for the Wilshire 5000.
Don’t wait. Get on board with Investor Advisory Service. Click here for a free sample and click here to subscribe.
Manually Entering the High EPS in a Toolkit Study
Nattering About Negativism in Earnings
Users of Toolkit 6 know its powers. The world’s most popular software for fundamental stock analysis is designed to be easy to use, but there are many tips and tricks available to enhance your operations. In StockCentral.com’s Toolshed forum, in which users present common questions and problems, Toolkit expert Sean Pulrang recently solved a difficulty a user was having calculating the high EPS in a Toolkit study.
This process sometimes produces the error message: “Growth rate cannot be calculated from negative last year EPS. Change the starting point of the trend.” Sean explains: “This phenomenon occurs if the starting point of your Projecting Line for Earnings is negative; this can be either the last annual data, or the last quarterly data, depending on the setting in Toolkit, and on the individual SSG. Due to the calculations Toolkit makes, it cannot calculate a positive number from a negative starting point.” The best option is to change where the EPS figure is coming from. Click here to find out how in StockCentral’s Toolkit forum. Got a question? Just ask!
Investing Is More Than a Hail Mary
Class Is Back in Session on Sept. 16
Football and baseball are both in full swing these days, and the two sports present an interesting example of investing theories, ICLUBcentral guru Doug Gerlach explained in a recent Lunchtime Stock Club webinar. In The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports and Investing, author Michael J. Mauboussin of Credit Suisse — also a finance professor at Columbia Business School — provides an intriguing look at the roles of skill and luck in investing and sports, and why it’s worth examining.
Consider an NFL football team, which plays less than 20 games per season, versus a Major League Baseball team, which plays more than 160 games a year. A football team is far more likely to go undefeated during a season than a baseball team because of a smaller “sample size” of match-ups, giving luck a more prominent role in the results. A baseball team, on the other hand, is put to the test far more often, making the players’ skills more relevant in the overall results.
For individual investors, luck will always play a role in results, but skills matter as we improve our discipline. As Doug explains, “Managing luck and skill is an art, but as we become more skillful, our performance becomes more consistent — though luck is still part of the game.” Join Gerlach on the second Monday of every month from 1:30 to 2:30 ET for an inspiring hour with quick book reviews and the news and insights to sharpen your investing edge. Go to the Lunchtime Stock Club Webinars page for more information about registering for upcoming events or accessing archived sessions.
BINC Summer Special Ends This Month
San Jose Convention Promises to Be a Vintage Event
Summer will be over soon and so will the BetterInvesting National Convention Summer Special. Register now and receive up to $105 off the regular convention rate. Treat yourself and learn from the top BetterInvesting educators. Help boost your portfolio returns by upgrading your investing skills. This is the only type of convention at which you can earn a return on your investment in learning. The convention favorites are the panels of educators sharing stock ideas. Come home with new stocks to study.
Did you know that San Jose is close to nearby San Francisco, Monterey, Carmel and Napa Valley wine country? While you're on the West Coast plan a pre or post-convention stay to see and enjoy the area. Then take advantage of the special rate for your significant other.
Register now during the Summer Special and save up to $105 off the regular registration rate. Your registration includes not only the formal conference agenda, but also five meals, a Thursday night welcome reception, Friday night exhibitor reception and a Saturday night awards dinner.
So find your way to San Jose and join us for the 64th annual BetterInvesting National Convention! To find out more and to register, visit www.BetterInvesting.org/biconvention.
TODAY'S ENTIRELY RELEVANT QUOTATION
"Quite frankly, about the only thing that has kept the United States from looking like Europe the past five years has been the remarkable innovation in the technology that allows us to extract oil and gas at reasonable prices."
— John Maudlin, Maudlin Economics