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sean  
#1 Posted : Friday, October 15, 2010 12:21:59 PM(UTC)
sean

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This one comes about, as is often the case, from a member calling in with a question about how or why something works the way it does. In this case, he was curious mostly to know the reasoning behind why adjusting the EPS on the Portfolio Review did not then flow back into the SSG. Now I have to say that with the amount of changes back and forth to stock studies in my own copy of Toolkit, I hadn't really considered this before, so I sent a couple of emails out to Doug, asking for a bit of clarification. The following is (with a bit of editing) what he sent back. I hope this helps give a bit of insight into the workings of Toolkit (Also, if you're not familiar with the button I'm describing, I've attached an image to this post, which shows the button circled in Red, and an example of the screen it brings up): 

In the history of the BI/NAIC-based methodology, the Portfolio features weren't meant to "flow back" to your original stock study -- the original stock study was fixed in time at the point at which you prepared it, and you used the portfolio reports and the PMG/SMG to monitor your holding as time marched onward. Toolkit 6 continues with that approach; the ability to enter your own estimates for the next twelve months is used to fine-tune the outlook of current holdings in the context of the review of an existing portfolio and give a clearer picture of the near-term expectations.

At the point where you conduct a stock study, you are looking ahead with the benefit of a view of what's happened, but there is a clear break in the continuum where you say "what's past is past, here's what I expect for the future," and the assumptions are rarely exactly the same. We apply conservative judgment, and scale back growth rates, and lower PE ratios for our long-term view, for instance. However, in the near-term, the future may be a lot less murky than the view is when we try to see out five years. Adjusting the EPS on the Portfolio Review Report allows us to incorporate a bit of the near-term view to give us a sense of what's perhaps more likely to occur in the short term, without affecting our long-term vision in the SSG.

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