Rank: Advanced Member
Posts: 62
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Ellis, I was looking at these averages. I do
see below it has the revised averages used in the further
computations. Even they still give an incredibly high potential low price
on WAG, seeing it is presently going for $33.71, versus TakeStock's potential
low of $46.35, and suggested buy range below $54.77. Usually
TS's buy range is ultra conservative. It just seems that in this
case, it is looking at some factor that is skewing the results. And then
again, maybe the problem is a PICNIC ;-)
Gene.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Posts: 82
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Gene:
The issue isn't really the logic nor the math; it's the market. Every stock we look at these days is apt to present the same indication; i.e., that the valuation we place on the shares is higher than the herd's. And this is to be expected.
The key to feeling comfortable these days is to look at the Rational Value of these companies. For example, the Rational Value of WAG is $66.23. [Note: The Rational Value is calculated by dividing the current price by the Relative Value or, in this case, the Historical Value Ratio (HVR).] This is the price the stock would sell for if the herd/market were not irrationally depressed. If the fundamentals we cherish (stability and strength in growth and management's efficiency) are satisfactory, then it's obvious that this company's stock is selling at a bargain. This puts the low price of $46.35 at a reasonable value, vis a vis a rational market.
I don't agree with the majority of NAIC gurus who think the low price is "adjustable" to produce a comfortable U/D ratio. That's "fudgin' the numbers" so far as I'm concerned. I can't see being concerned with a low price that is driven there by an irrationally depressed market. And, as we're taught to do, I'm content to stay with it and not worry about it. When the herd comes to its collective senses, it'll all come back into focus. |
Ellis Traub |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Posts: 561
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When the herd comes back to its collective senses, it'll all come back into focus.
In the meantime, we might be trying to take advantage of the herd's irrationality? At yesterday's close, the Dow is 85% of its closing value in mid October ...
-- Joe Join me August 8-10, 2008 in Charlotte, North Carolina for InvestEd 2008 ( http://www.investor-education2008.org) |
Joe |
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