THE "NO FOOLIN' " EDITION
31 MARCH 2011
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On to more of this week's headlines . . .
THERE'S STILL TIME!
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AFTERSHOCKS
What Will Be the Long-Term Effects of Japan's Tragedy?
Just this morning, your reporter heard a news report stating that the tsunami that struck Japan was actually larger and more intense than originally thought. Some of the buildings that withstood the initial wave collapsed under the second blow as the wall of water receded. The cost of such devastation will be felt on many levels for many years to come.
There is a very real financial impact that will be felt not just in Japan, but also across the globe. SC member Nylgia Callaway addressed a small facet of that impact in a recent post in the Community Forum:
"Does anyone have any ideas as to how the Japan quake and tsunami will affect the long term performance of AFLAC? AFLAC is the largest life insurer in Japan. At some point, the company will be impacted as policies are paid out.
Goldman Sachs analysts have indicated that AFLAC has the highest sales exposure of any U.S. company to the Japanese market. They predict AFLAC's sales exposure to be 74 percent. The AFLAC CEO has stated that the impact will cause minimal impact and predicted that their earnings ‘will likely be at the low end of the 8 percent to 12 percent range' for 2011.
The price has already tumbled a little since the quake. I would think there would definitely be an impact on sales and earnings for at least the next couple of years. However, what about long-term (5 years)? Will it continue to impact the company that far down the road? Does anyone know where I could go for guidance on this?"
SC Member Danny Matthews offered this insight:
"The third paragraph (of a Press Release issued by AFLAC) states that only 5 percent of in-force policies and new sales are derived from the three most affected areas," he writes in his posted response. "They also state, as you pointed out, that EPS will remain in the low double digits growth. Sounds as though if nuclear claims escalate, all estimates are off the table."
To view Danny's link to the Aflac press release that addresses these concerns, and to join in on the discussion, stop by the Aflac forum.
TODAY'S ENTIRELY RELEVANT QUOTATION
"The time of maximum pessimism is the best time
to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."
— John Templeton