StockCentral
»
StockCentral
»
The Toolshed
»
Take Stock's 4th Quarter Effect
Rank: Advanced Member
Posts: 271
|
Ten days ago, I discovered that Take Stock Online radically changed its assessment of INFY and WIT after the fourth quarter of data was added, along with full year 2006, even though its judgments remained unchanged.
- For INFY, the Total Return went from 6.9% to 18.3%
- For WIT, the Total Return went from 8.0% to 17.2%
Note that both INFY and WIT were a SSG BUY, after Q4 and 2006 data were added, but a SSG DON’T BUY before. Such a dramatic reversal is troubling and suggests to me that Take Stock can be unreliable and untrustworthy.
Could someone who knows what’s going on please explain what’s going on….using actual numbers for INFY and WIT?
I posted my question and concern in the INFY and WIT forums/folders, but got no response.
Armin Fields
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank: Advanced Member
Posts: 561
|
Armin,
The Take Stock result isn't any more reliable than an SSG analysis. The result depends on the data and the judgment applied to the data.
When a 4th quarter is added, there is a new year's worth of data -- another set of annual data. Thus, it's not necessarily surprising that judgment will change. In fact, it's the influx of annual data that should trigger updating the SSG/TSSW. Similar updates are suggested for quarterly updates, but the new line of annual data is likely to produce more of a change.
That said, I'll try to dig in and see what I think in going from one year to the next and get back to you ... hopefully in the next week.
----------
Oh ... since you're in San Diego ... have you considered coming to InvestEd 2007? It's in Costa Mesa in August. Among other things, you'd have a chance to meet Doug Gerlach, Ellis Traub, Mark Robertson and others and debate issues like this in person! |
Joe |
|
|
|
|
|
StockCentral
»
StockCentral
»
The Toolshed
»
Take Stock's 4th Quarter Effect
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.